Monthly Archives: July 2012

Naroff Economic Advisors – June New Home Sales

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NAROFF ECONOMIC ADVISORS, Inc.

Joel L. Naroff
President and Chief Economist

INDICATOR: June New Home Sales

KEY DATA: Sales: down 8.4%; Median Prices (Year-over-Year): down 3.2%

IN A NUTSHELL: “Home sales are bouncing around but the trend remains up.”

WHAT IT MEANS: I have been touting the housing market as the next leading light in the economy. Well, sometimes you have to take one step back to move two steps forward and that may have happened in June. New Home sales fell sharply. That was not expected. But as usual, the details may not really be as bad as they appear. First of all, sales of the previous three months were revised upward with the May numbers increased by 3.5% while the April numbers were boosted by nearly 4.5%. Those are pretty good sized increases and point to a market that is moving upward. So don’t be surprised if the June numbers also turn out to be a lot higher than initially estimated. Second, much of the fall off in sales came in the Northeast. If you believe the Census Bureau’s first round of guesses, new home purchases fell by a whopping and incomprehensible 60% in that part of the country. If you believe that, contact me immediately as I am selling shares in a bridge and a Broadway musical. Demand was down in the South as well while they rose sharply in the Midwest and more moderately in the West. Basically, the data can be volatile so let’s not get too worked up about one decline. Smoothing things out by looking at quarterly averages, second quarter new home sales were up by nearly three percent from the first quarter and nearly twenty percent from second quarter 2011. That’s solid improvement. Prices, however, did decline over the month and from last year. Sales at the upper end of the market eased and that hurt. Inventory is still minimal so that should keep prices from falling further if, as expected, sales rebound.

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS: In a world where the only data that matter are today’s data, this is not a good report. Indeed, most of us expected sales to have risen not fallen. Yet there is no reason to believe the market is weakening. The trend is still up and builders remain quite upbeat. Indeed, it is hard to believe that the market is turning downward when the Home Builders’ Confidence Index jumped in July to its highest level in over five years. Either developers are clueless or the data have yet to catch up with reality. I am on the side of the latter. Still, investors don’t like to be surprised, especially on the downside so this report cannot help build confidence in the economy. But it is earnings season and once again, what businesses did will probably dominate short term movements in the market. On Friday, second quarter GDP will be released and that should bring the discussion back to the economic numbers. Unfortunately, that report will likely be viewed more through a political lens than an economic one.

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RE/MAX Connection Realtors is not a licensed financial advisor and is not providing any financial advice. You should consult with a licensed financial advisor prior to making any financial decisions. RE/MAX Connection Realtors only is providing this economic statement from Naroff Economic Advisors, Inc. for informational purposes.

Our company accepts no liability for the content of this email/blog, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided. Any views or opinions presented in this email/blog are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the company. Finally, the recipient should check this email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. The company accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this email.

RE/MAX Connection Realtors, 1000 Lincoln Drive East, Suite Two, Marlton, NJ 08053 www.goconnectionnj.com

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GUARDIAN SEMINAR TO HIGHLIGHT HOME INSPECTIONS

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GUARDIAN SETTLEMENT SEMINAR FOR AUGUST
HIGHLIGHTS INS AND OUTS OF HOME INSPECTIONS

For more information, contact
Drew Whipple at 856-985-9007
or awhipple@goguardianinsurance.com

EVESHAM (July 25) – Steve Hunn and Mike Buckley from U.S. Inspect will be the featured speakers at the next “Guardian Hour of Power Lunch Seminar” to be held on Wednesday, August 8.

Hunn and Buckley will address the topic “How to Assure a Home Inspection Does Not Kill a Deal.” U.S. Inspect bills itself as the one-stop solution for home inspection needs, including tests for radon, termites and more. Hunn is the Philadelphia/South Jersey/Delaware region manager and Buckley is one of the company’s Building Consultants.

Sponsored by Guardian Settlement Agents, one of the state’s leading title agencies serving all of New Jersey’s 21 counties, the seminar will begin at 12 p.m. noon on Wednesday, August 8 at Guardian’s South Jersey headquarters at 1000 Lincoln Drive East, Suite Two, in Marlton (08053). Lunch will be served and there is no charge to attend.

To register for the seminar, contact Guardian Settlement Agents President Drew Whipple at 856-985-9007 or awhipple@goguardianinsurance.com.

“Home inspection are an important part of every residential real estate transaction,” said Guardian CEO Christopher J. Brown. “It’s important for Realtors and other industry professionals to know what is new and important in the field. This presentation is another example of the valuable information that’s available at our monthly Hour of Power seminars.”

U.S. Inspect was founded more than 20 years ago and boasts a customer satisfaction rating of 99.2 percent. Hunn and Buckley are part of a highly experienced nine-member inspection team in the local region. Hunn, for example, has taken part in more than 3,500 home inspections in his 15-year career. He has been regional manager for nine years.

Their Hour of Power presentation will focus on how U.S. Inspect uses strong communication skills to properly set expectations among the key players in a home inspection: The inspector, the Realtor and the customer.

“If we make sure everyone understands the process, we will have fewer communication issues down the line,” Hunn said. “We explain the process in detail to the customer and their Realtor before we start an inspection. Once they learn how a true, professional inspection is performed, we eliminate most – if not all – of the potential problems.”

Hunn said some home inspection companies feel compelled to find problems in an effort to justify their fee. At U.S. Inspect, he explained, they “tell is like it is” to the Realtor and the customer and stand on the merits of their work. The ultimate goal, he emphasized, is to make sure the deal goes through and – if there are problems – to make sure they are fully explained and understood.

The next “Hour of Power” seminar will be held on the second Wednesday of September, the 12th, and will feature Mark Riether, certified septic inspector from South Jersey Water Test, a leader in the field of private well testing and septic inspections. He will be speaking on the topic “Real Estate Septic Inspections following the “New” NJDEP Protocols.”

Guardian Settlement Agents has offices in both Burlington County – at 1000 Lincoln Drive East, Suite Two, Marlton, NJ 08053 (Phone: 856-985-9007, Fax: 856-985-9977) – and Somerset County – at 54 Grove Street, Suite 3 & 4, Somerville, NJ 08876 (Phone: 908-575-9995, Fax: 908-575-9996). Both offices are on the web at www.goguardianinsurance.com.

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NAROFF ECONOMIC ADVISORS – JUNE HOUSING STARTS AND PERMITS

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NAROFF ECONOMIC ADVISORS

Joel L. Naroff
President and Chief Economist

INDICATOR: June Housing Starts and Permits

KEY DATA: Starts: Up 6.9%; 1-Family: Up 4.7%; Permits: Down 3.7%; 1-Family: Up 0.6%

IN A NUTSHELL: “The missing link, the housing market, is slowly coming back and that is one reason we can hope that growth is not a weak as believed.”

WHAT IT MEANS: Housing was usually stage one of past economic recovery rockets and this time around the bursting housing bubble was a chief reason this upturn is a bottle rocket not a Saturn VB moon rocket. Slowly but steadily that is changing.

Housing starts jumped in June to the highest level since the financial crisis exploded in October 2008. Both single-family construction and multi-family activity rose solidly. Gains were generally across the nation but the West and the Northeast were the leading lights.

Starts surged by nearly 37% in the West and by more than 25% in the Northeast. Large cut backs in apartment construction held back building activity in the South and Midwest.

Looking forward, permit requests did ease but they had been running well above starts previously and now they are more in balance. Indeed, last month I had forecast a pop in June starts because of the large gap between starts and permits.

Consequently, we have to expect that starts will be stable in July since permits are now slightly below starts. There are a lot of permits that have yet to be used so construction should remain firm.

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Home construction rose robustly in the spring as the housing market continues to make progress in its recovery. Even with that improvement, first-half 2012 starts are maybe one-half where they should be in a normal market and that leaves a lot of room for further gains.

The extraordinarily low mortgage rates, which are still dropping, should help though not as much as we would like. People still need down payments and with equity down and prices only beginning to rise, it will be quite a while before a strong market becomes a reality.

The rise in the housing market should add to the debate about how fast the economy grew in the spring. Estimates of second quarter growth have been marked down dramatically since the weak June retail sales numbers were released.

Yes, consumption was not a major driver of growth but to some extent that may be offset by the continued strength in housing. And unless peace has broken out across the world and I managed to miss that email, the sharp declines in defense spending that have restrained growth in the last two quarters could easily turn around.

Thus, I believe that second quarter growth, which will be released on Friday, July 27th could come in north of 2%. Strangely, a number just above 2%, which is not very good, would be a major positive surprise and investors are looking for anything to boost confidence.

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RE/MAX Connection Realtors is not a licensed financial advisor and is not providing any financial advice. You should consult with a licensed financial advisor prior to making any financial decisions. RE/MAX Connection Realtors only is providing this economic statement from Naroff Economic Advisors, Inc. for informational purposes.

Our company accepts no liability for the content of this email/blog, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided. Any views or opinions presented in this email/blog are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the company. Finally, the recipient should check this email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. The company accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this email.

RE/MAX Connection Realtors, 1000 Lincoln Drive East, Suite Two, Marlton, NJ 08053 www.goconnectionnj.com.

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REALTOR CLYDE EARNS SHORT SALE CERTIFICATION

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RE/MAX CONNECTION REALTOR CLYDE EARNS
RARE SHORT SALE SPECIALIST CERTIFICATION

Contact: Kevin Bayzath
Phone: (856) 988-1800
Email: kbayzath@aol.com

MARLTON (July 16) – Stephen Clyde, a sales associate with RE/MAX Connection Realtors – the number one-ranked RE/MAX real estate company in New Jersey – is now the only Realtor in South Jersey to earn the Certified HAFA Specialist (CHS) designation.

This certification qualifies Clyde as an expert who is trained to leverage the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) program. Clyde not only is the sole South Jersey Realtor with the CHS designation, but also one of only six in the entire state.

“Stephen’s accomplishment is another example of how hard our Realtors work every day to provide our clients with superior customer service,” said RE/MAX Connection CEO Christopher J. Brown. “When home buyers and sellers contact us, they know they are working with the best team of real estate professionals in the business.”

HAFA is a standardized short sale program created by the federal government and adopted by multiple national lenders and servicers, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The program includes government-funded financial incentives for borrowers, investors and servicers paid at the completion of a transaction. It also offers mandatory debt forgiveness by all lien holders.

“If you or anyone you know owes more than their home is worth, is having trouble paying their mortgage, or is experiencing a financial hardship, there are programs to help,” said Clyde. “Anyone in a foreclosure or near-foreclosure situation should contact me at RE/MAX Connection right away.”

Clyde can be reached by phone at (856) 988-1800 or (609) 868-2114, by email at Stephen@TeamClyde.com, or through his website at www.njhafaspecialist.com.

With more than 1,300 transactions successfully closed, more than any other multi-office operation in the state, the three RE/MAX Connection offices in Marlton, Mantua and Turnersville were the number one-ranked RE/MAX real estate company in New Jersey in 2011. Those transactions totaled more than $218 million, which led to a third-place statewide ranking for RE/MAX Connection in overall agent commissions.

RE/MAX Connection – Marlton is located at 1000 Lincoln Drive East, Suite Two, Marlton, NJ 08053. Phone: (856) 988-1800. Fax: (856) 988-8020. RE/MAX Connection – Mantua is located at 140 Bridgeton Pike, Mantua, NJ 08051. Phone: (856) 415-1210. Fax: (856) 415-1291. RE/MAX Connection – Turnersville is at 5701 Route 42, Turnersville, NJ 08012. Phone: 856-228-7990. Fax: 856-228-4433.

All three offices are on the web at www.goconnectionnj.com.

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RE/MAX Connection Realtors accepts no liability for the content of this email/blog, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided, unless that information is subsequently confirmed in writing. RE/MAX Connection Realtors is providing this transmission for informational purposes only. Any views or opinions presented in this email/blog do not necessarily represent those of the company.

The recipient should check this email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. The company accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this email.

RE/MAX Connection Realtors, 1000 Lincoln Drive East, Suite Two, Marlton, NJ 08053 www.goconnectionnj.com.

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